In November, Floridians will vote on Amendment 3, which would increase the homestead exemption on non-school property taxes to $150,000 in 2027 and $250,000 in 2028, with the exemption adjusted for inflation thereafter. The state’s Revenue Estimating Conference projects the measure would reduce local property tax collections by approximately $45.8 billion over its first five years.
I’m not writing to argue for or against it. I’m writing about what comes after. If it passes, Florida will have fundamentally changed the economics of local government. We should be just as willing to reconsider the map.
Some cities will adapt. They’ll cut costs, share services or restructure. But others, particularly small towns with limited tax bases and heavy fixed costs, may discover they no longer make financial sense as independent governments.
Take Bowling Green, in Hardee County. Ninety-eight percent of its homesteaded properties are worth less than $250,000. Once the exemption is fully phased in, only about 20 homeowners in town would still owe city property tax, and property taxes supply roughly a quarter of the town’s general revenue. This isn’t a city with layers of excess waiting to be trimmed. Bowling Green has about 2,400 residents, seven police officers and one garbage truck. And Bowling Green is not alone.
The worst outcome for towns like it isn’t consolidation or disincorporation. It’s letting a city that is no longer financially viable linger for five or 10 years while employees leave, maintenance gets deferred, equipment ages, reserves drain, fees climb and residents pay more for less.
Read the full Guest Column on Florida Politics